Why the European Stress Tests Are a Farce
We're not quite sure what the EBA's (European Banking Authority) stress test of European banks was supposed to achieve. As far as public relations exercises go, the effort is a monumental failure. Recall that the first European bank stress test was immediately revealed as a sham when a number of Irish banks that had passed it collapsed a mere few weeks later. The results of the first test had of course been received with widespread incredulity, which the insolvency of Ireland's banks soon vindicated. This time the authorities attempted to deliver a more rigorous test, one that would produce enough failures to be credible, but not so many as to induce a panic. As we noted in Hurrah, We're Saved Again in late June, these goals were formulated well in advance, with anonymous sources from the ECB quoted by Reuters noting that
In the drive for credibility, the EBA, which runs the tests and the ECB, which sets the economic scenarios, have pushed for more banks to fail than last year's seven.
"How many do we expect to fail? I would say 10 to 15," said one senior euro zone central banking source.
The EBA wants the number of banks that do not pass the tests to be around that level to show the examinations were serious, said a second source, adding the authority did not want to push for more, for fear it could spark panic.
"In order to demonstrate that it is credible, the EBA would need to show that the number of bank failures is significant, without being substantial," said the source. "A number in the teens is about right."
Given such advance comments, the desired credibility was likely already lost before the publication of the stress test results. The actual results that have now been delivered quite possibly will serve to damage it further. Of 90 banks tested, only eight failed to pass the test's main requirement of keeping a core tier one capital ratio of 5% intact under the proposed stress scenario. An additional 16 banks fell in the 5-6% range, which is to say they almost failed to pass.
We should interpose here that the stress test was certainly not an entirely useless exercise, even though it will likely fail to boost confidence. Its usefulness consists mostly of the fact that it forced the banks concerned to reveal their various exposures in great detail, which makes it easier for outsiders to analyze their situation (we are sure we will have occasion to refer back to these data).
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Haircuts were however applied to the banks' trading books. As an example of how far removed from reality these haircuts are, consider that the biggest discount – applied to Greek government debt held in trading books – was 25%.
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Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007-09
... May 2007 (prior to the crisis), May 2008 (in the midst of the crisis), and May 2009. Both haircuts and spreads rose substantially during the crisis. ...Great American hypocrites, toppling the big myths of Republican politics
Do you wish you hadn't taken money in all those cases or hadn't made that kind of expenditure for a haircut? In December 2007, the Wall St. Journal's Peggy ...Slapped by the invisible hand, the panic of 2007
Also see Gorton (2009). The figure is a picture of the panic. Haircuts were zero until August 2007. After that, haircuts rise and continue to rise. ...A Quantitative Liquidity Model for Banks
Although repo and sale follow the haircut concept, haircuts and their ... Regulators stress that both haircuts are different. See [IIF. 2007. p.31]. ...Day-to-day Knowledge Directory
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